Can We Expect A Dramatic Drop In Austin Jackson’s Strikeout Rate?

Written by Matt Snyder | 14 February 2012

We learned from the Detroit Free Press back on January 20 that Austin Jackson had been working with Lloyd McClendon on tweaking his swing. The goal of the sessions, quite obviously, were (are) to help reduce Austin’s ample strikeout totals (he struck out in 27.1% of his plate appearances in 2011). McClendon was quoted by the Free Press saying:

"The key is the ability to adjust and go to a two-strike approach… those are things he didn't do before."

How well will the new approach work? It’s impossible to say. A lot depends on Jackson’s ability to retain the new approach (and that’s assuming the new hitting style ‘works’ to begin with), but what we can do is look at past strikeout kings and see how much they’ve improved in one season.

To do this, I found every player who had a strikeout rate of 25% or more (in a season) between the years 2000 and 2010.  There were 64 player-seasons that fit this criterion -- some players (like Adam Dunn, who made the list eight times) are represented more than once. Then, for each of the 64 seasons, I found the player’s strikeout rate the following year. Here’s the complete table:

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As you can see here on the bottom row, the average player was able to reduce his strikeout rate by 1.6 percentage points in the year following his 25%+ season. For Action Jackson, this would mean a 25.5% K-rate (nearly identical to the 25.2% rate he posted as a rookie). As a counting stat, that would be 10 or 11 fewer strikeouts than we saw last season (and probably three or four more times on base).

Now, Jackson’s rate will certainly not decrease by exactly 1.6 percentage points, but that should probably serve as the basis for our expectations. It is possible, however, that we could see a more dramatic difference. 11 players were able to reduce their strikeout rate by more than 5%. The top three were even able to reduce their rate by more than seven percentage points, they were: Justin Upton (26.6% in 2010 and 18.7% in 2011), BJ Upton (28.1% in 2007 and 20.9% in 2008), and Mike Napoli (26.9% in 2010 and 19.7% in 2011).

But there were also cases of players going the wrong direction. 21 players saw their strikeout rate by any amount, and six saw their whiff rate increase by more than three percentage points. The worst three offenders were: Adam Dunn (an increase of 5% from 2010 to 2011), Ryan Howard (5% increase from 2006 to 2007), and Adam Dunn again (4.2% increase from 2009 to 2010). And yes, that means Dunn saw his already high rate increase by more than nine percentage points over the last two years.

Combining the fact the the coaching staff seems to be implementing a contact approach with Jackson with the fact that most of these super high strikeout players do see a decrease in K-rate the following year, it is more than reasonable to expect improvement, but exactly how much certainly remains to be seen. My guess is that we'll see no more than three percentage points shaved off of his rate, but even that would mark solid improvement. Assuming no change in Austin's BABIP from last year (could be an unlikely situation with an altered batting approach, but we'll roll with it), a 3% reduction in strikeouts could be expected to help raise his OBP from .317 to about .325. Not tremendous, especially for a leadoff man, but it would be moving in the right direction.

Matt Snyder is the editor of The Tigers Den. He can be reached on Twitter @snyder_matthew.